As Lebanon navigates a fraught period of uneasy calm, the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament remains at the heart of its prospects for peace and national recovery. Recent events underscore both the fragility of the current ceasefire and the deep complexities that surround efforts to build a stable future.

Between late April and early May 2025, Lebanon was rocked by two Israeli airstrikes, both ostensibly aimed at Hezbollah targets. The first, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, and the second, in southern Lebanon, resulted in casualties and renewed anxieties. While such confrontations are not new, their occurrence during a nominal five-month truce highlights the precariousness of the current situation.

These violations are not just reminders of the region’s volatility—they complicate Lebanon’s core challenge: dismantling Hezbollah’s military capacity. Despite suffering targeted losses and diminished popular support in recent years, Hezbollah remains a significant force within the country. Disarmament, as outlined in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, remains a cornerstone of the international community’s vision for a peaceful and sovereign Lebanon.

The Road to Ceasefire

The roots of the current impasse stretch back to the aftermath of the October 2023 attack on Israel, which prompted Hezbollah to declare solidarity with the Palestinian cause. A cycle of escalating hostilities followed, culminating in Israel’s sixth military incursion into Lebanon in October 2024. This conflict exacted a heavy toll: nearly 3,800 Lebanese lives lost, over a million people displaced, and an estimated $14 billion in economic damage.

Hezbollah was weakened by these events,........

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