Arakan Army’s offensive reshapes Rakhine-and pushes the Rohingya toward an irreversible crisis |
The ground beneath the Rohingya crisis has shifted once again-and this time, perhaps more dramatically than at any point since the genocide of 2017. Over the past week, the Arakan Army (AA), one of Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic armed groups, has launched a sweeping new offensive across critical areas of northern Rakhine State. In doing so, it has tightened its hold on territory that was once bitterly contested, transforming not only the military landscape but also the political and humanitarian future of the region.
Yet this escalation has been overshadowed by global attention on other conflicts-from Gaza to Ukraine to the South China Sea. As a result, one of the most consequential developments for nearly a million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh has unfolded with little international scrutiny. For those Rohingya still trapped inside Rakhine under severe restrictions, the implications are even more immediate and dangerous.
This offensive marks a turning point that could redefine whether repatriation is still possible, whether humanitarian access can survive, and whether Bangladesh can continue depending on assumptions that no longer match realities on the ground.
For years, the Arakan Army has been pushing steadily against Myanmar’s weakened military junta. But the gains made in recent days-particularly around Buthidaung, Maungdaw, and other northern townships-represent a qualitative leap. Communication blackouts, the collapse of remaining junta outposts, and intensified clashes have positioned the AA as the dominant authority in areas that once formed the heartland of Rohingya life.
This shift is far more than a series of battlefield victories. It represents the consolidation of political power. In Myanmar’s fragmented civil war, control of land determines governance, taxation, movement, humanitarian access, justice systems, and identity policies. By capturing these key areas, the AA has effectively become the de facto government of northern Rakhine.
For the Rohingya, this development carries profound consequences.........