North Africa’s fragile growth tests the continent’s future |
North Africa enters 2026 carrying a paradox that is increasingly difficult to ignore. On the surface, the region appears relatively stable compared with much of the continent. Growth rates are respectable, state institutions remain functional, and global powers now treat North Africa as strategically indispensable rather than merely diplomatically useful. Yet beneath these reassuring indicators lie vulnerabilities that are deep, structural, and converging. Economic recovery has outpaced political renewal, climate stress is steadily eroding social contracts, and external engagement has become more transactional as the global order fragments. North Africa is not failing, but it is no longer insulated from the pressures reshaping Africa and the world.
Economically, the headline numbers are encouraging. Combined growth across North Africa has hovered around 4 percent, outperforming both sub-Saharan Africa and the broader Middle East. Egypt and Morocco account for much of this momentum, and their trajectories illustrate both the possibilities and limits of the current model. Egypt’s rebound from the brink of default in 2024 stands out as a case of stabilization under pressure. A sharp currency flotation, painful subsidy cuts, and renewed inflows from Gulf states and Europe helped avert a balance-of-payments collapse that once seemed existential. Inflation that had exceeded 30 percent has moderated, foreign exchange shortages have eased, and output growth approaching 4 percent signals a return to macroeconomic order. For a country of more than 110 million people, this growth is hardly transformative, but after years of crisis, stability itself became the achievement.
Morocco’s story is less dramatic but more structural. Decades of incremental reform have built credibility with investors, manufacturers, and trading partners. Automotive exports now exceed $14 billion annually, renewable energy capacity ranks among the largest in Africa, and industrial zones linked to ports such as Tangier Med have embedded the country deeply into European value chains. Growth near 4 percent may not resemble a boom, but it reflects an economic system that works often enough to compound gains over time. Morocco demonstrates how predictability and institutional continuity can generate resilience even in an uncertain global environment.
Elsewhere in North Africa, the picture is far more uneven. Tunisia’s economy has barely........