The Middle East has long been a region defined by complexity, fragility, and geopolitical competition. Recent events, however, have underscored a worrying trend: the growing fragmentation of states, which poses serious threats not only to internal stability but also to regional and global security. From Yemen to Syria, Palestine, Sudan, Somalia, Libya, Iraq, and Lebanon, state authority is under unprecedented pressure, often undermined by internal rivalries and external interference. Understanding these dynamics is crucial, as the repercussions of fragmented governance extend far beyond the region.

The situation in Yemen illustrates the dangers of state disintegration. Since 2014, when the Iran-aligned Houthis seized power in northern Yemen, the country has effectively been split into two: the internationally recognized government retained control of parts of southern Yemen, primarily from the temporary capital of Aden, while the Houthis consolidated control over the north, including the capital Sanaa. While a fragile power-sharing agreement existed, it has repeatedly been tested by internal rivalries. In December 2025, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a coalition of groups from southern Yemen, attempted to seize territory under government control. This move violated both Yemen’s laws and a 2019 Saudi-mediated agreement with the government. Although the attempt failed, it starkly highlighted the risk of further fragmentation, which could render Yemen incapable of reasserting central authority and managing its own security.

Syria is facing a similar crisis, albeit with even more complex dimensions. In early January 2026, Aleppo witnessed the deadliest violence since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of left-wing militias linked to the Turkish separatist PKK, attacked government positions in the city, violating an agreement reached last March. The SDF’s self-proclaimed “Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria,” also known as Rojava, represents a direct challenge to Damascus’s sovereignty and reconstruction efforts. Complicating matters further, Israel has reportedly sought to encourage the small Druze community in southern Syria to secede and align with Israel, while hundreds of Israeli strikes have damaged Syrian........

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