Kenya–China zero-tariff deal signals a strategic shift in Africa’s global trade alignment |
Kenya’s newly signed preliminary bilateral trade agreement with China, granting zero-duty market access to 98.2 percent of Kenyan exports, marks more than a commercial breakthrough. It reflects a deeper recalibration of Africa’s trade diplomacy at a time when global economic alliances are increasingly shaped by tariffs, geopolitical competition, and competing development models.
The agreement follows China’s landmark announcement in June last year that it would eliminate tariffs on nearly all imports-covering between 98 and 100 percent of tariff lines-from 53 African countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Beijing. By extending duty-free access beyond least developed countries to include middle-income economies such as Kenya, Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa, China has signaled a strategic intent to reshape its economic engagement with the continent.
For Kenya, the implications are immediate and potentially transformative. Trade and Investments Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui described the deal as a gateway to the Chinese market for a broad range of Kenyan products, particularly agricultural exports that form the backbone of the domestic economy.
“This agreement opens the Chinese market to Kenyan goods at zero duty, with a particular emphasis on agriculture,” Kinyanjui said in media remarks. “It is a corrective measure that could gradually narrow the trade gap with Asia.”
The trade gap Kinyanjui refers to is stark. According to the United Nations COMTRADE database, Kenya exported goods worth just $196.55 million to China in 2024, while imports from China reached $8.58 billion. This imbalance has long fueled concerns in Nairobi about overdependence on Asian manufactured imports and the limited competitiveness of Kenyan exports in major global markets.
The Early Harvest phase of the agreement seeks to address this imbalance by prioritizing high-potential agricultural exports, including avocados, tea, coffee, and macadamia........