The easing of tensions in the Middle East has offered the world a moment to exhale-but not to relax. The fragile ceasefire involving the United States, Israel, and Iran may have reduced the immediate risk of escalation, yet it has done little to repair the deeper fractures now running through the global economy. Markets remain uneasy, policymakers cautious, and households increasingly burdened. The reality is stark: even if the guns fall silent, the economic consequences of this crisis are only beginning to unfold.

At the center of this unfolding stress lies the global energy system, once again exposed as both indispensable and dangerously vulnerable. The warning from the International Energy Agency-describing the current moment as the “greatest global energy security challenge in history”-captures the scale of the disruption. This is not merely a temporary supply shock. It is a systemic test of how resilient the modern global economy truly is when one of its most critical arteries is threatened.

That artery, of course, is the Strait of Hormuz. Responsible for a substantial share of global oil shipments, its vulnerability has once again become a central risk factor. Even partial disruptions or credible threats of closure are enough to send markets into turmoil. The recent surge in oil prices—from around $62 per barrel to nearly $100 in a matter of weeks-reflects not just supply constraints, but fear. And fear, in financial markets, is often more destabilizing than reality.

What makes this episode particularly troubling is that it comes at a time when the global economy was already navigating a fragile recovery. Prior to the February escalation, economic conditions were relatively stable. Inflation was moderating in several major economies, and central banks were preparing for a gradual easing of monetary policy. That trajectory has now been abruptly interrupted.

History offers a clear warning about what happens next. Energy shocks have repeatedly acted as accelerants for inflation and triggers for recession. In the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis, oil prices surged dramatically, feeding into........

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