Turkish-Russian relations have experienced a rollercoaster of diplomatic highs and lows over the past decade, with the Syrian crisis often serving as both a flashpoint and a platform for fragile cooperation. While initial hostilities peaked after Turkiye shot down a Russian jet in 2015, leading to intense sanctions and fiery rhetoric, the two nations unexpectedly reconciled in late 2016. This rapprochement was driven by both domestic imperatives and international realignments, culminating in their collaboration under the Astana peace framework. However, recent developments suggest the partnership is being tested once again, with Russia referring to Turkiye as an “occupying force” in Syria-a term laden with geopolitical undertones.
This shift in tone from Moscow is emblematic of broader regional and global dynamics. The intersection of US politics, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and Turkiye’s balancing act between Washington and Moscow are all reshaping this complex relationship. At its core, Turkiye’s position in Syria and its role in the Ukraine conflict highlight the delicate and sometimes contradictory strategies Ankara employs to secure its national interests while navigating its relationships with major powers.
The roots of Turkish-Russian tension over Syria run deep. In 2015, the downing of a Russian Su-24 fighter jet by Turkish forces brought the two nations to the brink of open conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin labeled the act a “stab in the back,” while Turkiye defended its airspace integrity. The crisis led to a suspension of economic ties and intense diplomatic hostility. Yet, by late 2016, the relationship took a surprising turn toward reconciliation.
Key to this rapprochement was the Astana framework, which allowed Ankara and Moscow to delineate their roles in Syria. Despite pursuing opposing objectives-Russia supporting the Assad regime and Turkiye opposing it-the two countries found common ground in........