Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had profound ripple effects across the globe. From exacerbating food insecurity in vulnerable regions to triggering an acute energy crisis in Europe, the consequences of the conflict have been far-reaching. Economic instability and inflationary pressures have gripped nations in Africa and the Middle East, while geopolitical fault lines have deepened worldwide. Yet, among these ramifications, one critical issue has received insufficient attention: the impact of Russia’s aggression on global nuclear nonproliferation efforts.
As we mark the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, it is crucial to examine how the war in Ukraine has reshaped perceptions of nuclear weapons and the global nonproliferation regime. This reflection not only underscores the shortcomings of past agreements but also highlights the potential for future crises driven by disillusionment and mistrust.
The story of nuclear weapons in post-Soviet states begins with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Among the 15 newly independent states, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus inherited sizable portions of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. While Kazakhstan and Belarus swiftly returned control of their nuclear stockpiles to Moscow, Ukraine’s position was more complex.
Ukraine suddenly became the third-largest nuclear power in the world, sparking a domestic debate over whether to retain its arsenal. On one hand, many of the weapons were nearing obsolescence, and Ukraine lacked the financial and technical resources to modernize or maintain them. On the other hand, a nuclear deterrent was seen by many as essential for safeguarding the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Ultimately, Ukraine opted for........