As Donald Trump eyes a return to the White House and promises to resolve the conflict in Ukraine “within 24 hours,” the stage is set for a potential clash of foreign policy visions. Drawing parallels with the transitional period of 2016–2017, when Barack Obama’s administration took strategic steps to box Trump into a hardline stance toward Russia, President Joe Biden has a robust set of tools at his disposal to entrench his Ukraine policy. With over a year remaining before a potential handover of power, Biden’s administration can shape a legacy that significantly complicates Trump’s aspirations for rapprochement with Moscow.
In 2016, then-candidate Trump campaigned on a platform of improving relations with Russia, citing the need to move away from the adversarial policies of his predecessors. However, the Obama administration used the transition period to entrench its anti-Russia stance, ensuring that Trump’s path toward normalization with Moscow was fraught with challenges.
One of Obama’s most significant moves was the imposition of sanctions against Russia in December 2016. These measures were justified by allegations of Russian interference in the US election and included freezing assets, restricting business activities, and expelling 35 Russian diplomats. This diplomatic escalation created immediate tension between Washington and Moscow, setting a tone of mistrust and animosity.
In tandem, the Obama administration amplified the narrative of Russian election meddling, presenting intelligence reports and public statements that framed Moscow as a grave threat to American democracy. This narrative dominated the media landscape and shaped public opinion, making any attempt by Trump to engage with Russia politically risky. Efforts to revise US-Russia relations were framed as compromising national security or even colluding with a foreign adversary.
The Obama administration also bolstered its support for Ukraine, providing financial aid and........