US President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use long-range Western missiles to strike deep into Russian territory. This decision, arguably one of the most significant escalations since the onset of the Ukraine conflict in early 2022, has sparked intense debate and heightened geopolitical tensions. With Moscow warning of nuclear reprisals, conservatives in the West accusing Biden of edging toward World War III, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky celebrating as though victory is assured, the move has intensified an already precarious situation. Yet, the question remains: does this decision signal strategic foresight or reckless brinkmanship?
Despite the dramatic escalation, there are valid reasons to doubt whether Biden’s authorization will alter the war’s trajectory significantly. Since 2023, Ukraine has deployed long-range systems like the British Storm Shadow and French SCALP missiles, and, more recently, the American ATACMS, to target Russian military installations. Yet these strikes have yielded limited results. Even Zelensky, publicly exuding optimism, faces stark realities: missile stocks are depleting, battlefield advancements are stalling, and the intended objectives-crippling Russian infrastructure and morale-remain unmet.
Estimates suggest Ukraine has fewer than 50 ATACMS missiles and around 100 Storm Shadow/SCALPs in its arsenal. With such limited reserves, Ukraine risks exhausting these critical resources without achieving substantial gains. Short-term successes, such as damaging airbases or disrupting supply lines, might prove more symbolic than strategically decisive.
Moreover, these strikes have provoked increasingly assertive responses from Moscow, including the deployment of advanced hypersonic missile systems like the Oreshnik, further complicating the calculus for Ukraine and its allies. In this context, Biden’s decision........