The collapse of the first round of US–Iran negotiations, even with Pakistan’s mediation, was less an unexpected failure than a predictable outcome. Both sides entered the process with hardened positions shaped by years of mistrust, military posturing, and domestic political constraints. Expecting a breakthrough from such a setup misunderstands the nature of the conflict. The second round of talks is unlikely to fare better if it remains confined to bilateral bargaining. The structural issues at play are simply too interconnected, too politically charged, and too regionally entangled to be solved in isolation.

What the current moment demands is not incremental diplomacy but a shift in architecture: from fragmented negotiations to a comprehensive regional framework that addresses the underlying security dilemmas of the Middle East in a coordinated way. Without this broader design, every ceasefire or agreement will remain temporary, vulnerable to collapse under the weight of unresolved tensions.

At the heart of the crisis are not one but four interlocking fault lines: the strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear trajectory, the absence of a functioning regional security system to manage missiles and proxy conflicts, and the unresolved Israeli–Palestinian conflict. These issues do not operate independently. Progress on any one of them is structurally constrained unless progress is made on the others.

This is why bilateral US–Iran diplomacy alone is insufficient. Even if Washington and Tehran were to reach a narrow understanding, it would remain exposed to disruption by regional actors, shifting alliances, and unresolved conflicts elsewhere. Israel’s indirect but decisive role further complicates the equation, as its security concerns and military posture continue to influence escalation dynamics across multiple theatres.

The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the immediate flashpoint. Any disruption to its operation carries global consequences, given its central role in global energy flows. Temporary closures and military confrontations in the area have already demonstrated how quickly escalation can spiral beyond control. A more durable arrangement would require internationalization of its security under a carefully structured interim........

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