Turkey has introduced an ambitious decade-long water management strategy that is set to influence not only its domestic consumption patterns but also the flow of key rivers feeding much of the Middle East. The move reflects Ankara’s dual objective: conserving water at home while reinforcing control over critical upstream resources.

The National Water Plan covering 2026 to 2035 officially came into effect following a presidential decree and its publication in the Official Gazette on March 14. Developed by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the plan outlines a comprehensive framework governing water use, infrastructure development, and long-term resource management.

At the domestic level, the strategy sets clear efficiency targets. Water losses in municipal supply networks are expected to decline significantly, dropping to 25 percent by 2030 and further to 10 percent by mid-century. Per capita daily water use is also slated to decrease, with targets of 120 liters by 2030 and 100 liters by 2050.

Industry is expected to play a more active role in conservation efforts. The plan calls for a substantial increase in water recycling, with reuse rates projected to reach 30 percent by 2030 and 50 percent by 2050. Agriculture, which remains the largest consumer of water in Turkey, is another key focus. Irrigation efficiency is expected to improve to 60 percent by 2030 and 65 percent by 2050, reflecting an effort to reduce waste without undermining agricultural output.

Beyond consumption targets, the strategy emphasizes structural improvements, including expanded wastewater treatment capacity, digital monitoring systems, and enhanced resilience to climate-related risks.

However, the significance of Turkey’s water policy extends far beyond its borders. Several major rivers that originate within Turkish territory flow into neighboring countries, making upstream decisions a sensitive geopolitical issue.

Among the most critical waterways are the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, both of which rise in eastern Turkey before continuing south into Syria and Iraq. Together, they form the backbone of freshwater supply for large parts of the northern Middle East.

The Euphrates travels approximately 2,800 kilometers from its source in Turkey through Syria and into Iraq, while the Tigris follows a southeastern path into Iraq, where the two rivers eventually converge before emptying into the Persian Gulf. Turkey’s upstream position gives it considerable influence: estimates suggest that around 90 percent of the Euphrates’ flow originates in Turkey, while the Tigris derives roughly 40 to 50 percent of its water from Turkish sources.

This geographic reality means that Turkish decisions on dam construction, reservoir management, and water allocation have direct consequences for downstream countries.

Water has therefore remained a persistent source of tension between Turkey and its southern neighbors. Since the 1970s, Ankara has pursued large-scale infrastructure development under the Southeastern Anatolia Project, a sweeping initiative aimed at boosting hydroelectric generation and expanding irrigation across the country’s southeast.

The project, which includes 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric facilities, has transformed the region into a major agricultural hub. At the same time, it has heightened concerns in Syria and Iraq about reduced downstream flows and long-term water security.

These concerns are particularly acute in Iraq, where the Tigris and Euphrates are central to agriculture, drinking water supply, and electricity production. With approximately 70 percent of its water resources originating outside its borders, Iraq is highly vulnerable to upstream decisions. Climate pressures—including declining rainfall and rising temperatures—have further intensified the strain.

The broader regional context only adds urgency. The Middle East is already among the most water-stressed regions in the world, and climate projections indicate that drought conditions and evaporation rates are likely to worsen in the coming decades.

As a result, water management has increasingly become a matter of diplomacy. Turkey, Iraq, and Syria have engaged in intermittent negotiations over water-sharing arrangements and technical cooperation. However, the absence of a comprehensive, binding agreement continues to leave the basin without a stable governance framework.

Turkey’s water policy also carries implications beyond the Middle East. In the northwest, the Meriç River—known as the Evros in Greece—forms part of the border between Turkey and Greece after flowing from Bulgaria. Seasonal flooding along this river has periodically created tensions among the three countries, particularly when upstream conditions in Bulgaria lead to downstream impacts.

Managing such transboundary rivers requires coordinated action, underscoring the broader geopolitical dimension of water governance.

Notably, Turkey’s National Water Plan does not establish international quotas or formal agreements. Instead, it focuses on shaping domestic policy—decisions that will nonetheless influence water availability beyond its borders.

For downstream nations, these policies will remain a critical factor in determining access to water resources essential for agriculture, urban life, and energy generation.

The plan has also drawn criticism at home. Dr. Baran Bozoğlu of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), an environmental engineer and deputy chair responsible for local governments, has dismissed the strategy as overly aspirational. He argues that, while the plan identifies key challenges, it falls short of offering concrete solutions.

Among the issues he highlights are unclear funding mechanisms for municipalities, the absence of sweeping reforms to address agricultural water waste, and fragmented governance structures that divide responsibility among multiple institutions. In his view, technological solutions such as digital monitoring systems cannot substitute for deeper structural reforms.

Bozoğlu also points to international examples to illustrate what more decisive action could look like, citing Tokyo’s modernization of water infrastructure to reduce losses and Singapore’s advanced wastewater recycling systems that convert treated water into potable supply.

His critique underscores a broader concern: that without political commitment and comprehensive reform, even the most detailed plans may struggle to deliver meaningful results.

In the years ahead, Turkey’s approach to water management will not only shape its domestic sustainability but also influence regional stability. As climate pressures intensify and demand grows, control over shared water resources is likely to become an even more critical—and contested—issue.

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