Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal faces critical test of momentum |
More than three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union ignited violent disputes across the South Caucasus, Armenia and Azerbaijan stand closer to lasting peace than at any point in their modern history. Yet proximity alone does not guarantee success. Five months after the landmark White House meeting hosted by US President Donald Trump-where Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan committed to finalizing a peace treaty-the process has entered a fragile and potentially decisive phase. Without renewed momentum, what was hailed as a historic breakthrough risks becoming another missed opportunity in a region long scarred by conflict.
The roots of the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict lie in the final years of the Soviet Union, when nationalist movements and institutional collapse converged around Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding territories. Armenian-backed forces seized control of a large swath of internationally recognized Azerbaijani territory in the early 1990s, creating hundreds of thousands of displaced persons and freezing relations between the two states for nearly three decades. While ceasefires periodically reduced violence, they never resolved the underlying dispute. That status quo ended decisively with Azerbaijan’s military campaigns in 2020 and 2023, which restored Baku’s control over the occupied territories and fundamentally altered the balance of power.
In the aftermath of those conflicts, both Armenia and Azerbaijan appeared to recognize a simple reality: continued confrontation offered diminishing returns, while peace-however difficult-presented tangible economic and security benefits. Still, despite several mediation efforts by Russia, the European Union, and regional actors, negotiations repeatedly stalled. It was only with renewed US engagement, culminating in the August White House meeting, that a clear framework for normalization emerged. The agreement signed there committed both sides to ratify a comprehensive peace treaty within roughly 12 months and to pursue steps toward normalized diplomatic and economic........