Speculation about a potential “grand bargain” among the world’s three most influential powers-the United States, China, and Russia-tends to resurface whenever their leaders engage in high-level diplomacy. With Donald Trump expected to visit Beijing, followed by Vladimir Putin meeting Xi Jinping, such expectations have once again gained traction. The idea is simple but appealing: if these three actors could align their interests, perhaps global tensions would ease and a more predictable international system would emerge. Yet this expectation misunderstands the structural realities shaping today’s world. The global order is not waiting to be redesigned at a negotiating table; it is already being transformed by deeper forces that no single agreement can reverse.

At the core of this transformation is the breakdown of the economic and strategic framework that once underpinned relations between the United States and China. For decades, their relationship functioned as a cornerstone of globalization. American capital and innovation combined with Chinese manufacturing capacity to create what analysts often described as a mutually beneficial, if unequal, system. This arrangement helped fuel global growth and reinforced a relatively stable international environment. However, by the late 2000s, dissatisfaction in Washington had become increasingly evident. What was once viewed as a productive interdependence came to be seen as a structural imbalance that disadvantaged the United States.

This shift in perception marked the beginning of a broader transition. Incremental adjustments to trade policy or diplomatic engagement were no longer sufficient. Instead, the United States began to rethink its entire approach to global leadership. Under Donald Trump,........

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