As Sudan approaches the grim milestone of entering its fourth year of war, the conflict risks once again slipping into the shadows of global attention, overshadowed by other geopolitical crises. What was once a focal point of international concern has gradually become what many observers now describe as a “forgotten war,” despite its devastating humanitarian consequences and deepening political fragmentation.

The ongoing conflict in Sudan has been marked by intense fighting between the national army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Since the outbreak of hostilities in April 2023, millions have been displaced, infrastructure has been destroyed, and the country’s fragile political transition has collapsed entirely. Yet, as global powers shift their focus to other crises, Sudan’s plight is receiving diminishing diplomatic urgency.

Recent geopolitical developments have further contributed to this neglect. The escalation of tensions involving Iran and broader regional instability have drawn the attention of Western policymakers, particularly in Washington DC and European capitals. This shift mirrors an earlier pattern when the war in Gaza temporarily eclipsed Sudan’s crisis, only for attention to return sporadically without sustained engagement.

Amid this backdrop, efforts are underway to bring Sudan back into the international spotlight. Massad Boulos, a senior United States adviser for Arab and African affairs, recently disclosed discussions with Jens Hanefeld, Germany’s ambassador to the United States. Their talks focused on preparations for the Third International Conference on Sudan, scheduled to take place in Berlin on April 15, coinciding with the third anniversary of the war’s outbreak.

According to Boulos, the discussions addressed coordination among co-hosting parties and explored ways to strengthen international collaboration to ensure the conference’s effectiveness. The initiative is widely seen as an attempt to reinsert Sudan into the global diplomatic agenda after months of waning momentum.

However, the prospects for meaningful progress remain uncertain. The conference has already encountered resistance from within Sudan itself, reflecting the country’s deeply fractured political landscape. Forces aligned with the government and military leadership have announced a boycott, citing what they perceive as an imbalance in the conference’s participant list. They argue that certain civilian coalitions, particularly the Sumoud alliance, are being favored at the expense of other political actors.

In contrast, the RSF and its affiliated political structures have welcomed the initiative. Their support is widely interpreted as a strategic move to gain international legitimacy and assert their position on the global stage. This divergence underscores the complexity of Sudan’s internal dynamics, where political calculations often overshadow the urgent needs of the civilian population.

The situation highlights a broader paradox within Sudan’s political environment. International initiatives aimed at facilitating dialogue and humanitarian relief are frequently met with suspicion and, at times, outright rejection. Some factions frame these efforts as foreign interference or conspiracies, even when they are designed to provide neutral platforms for negotiation and conflict resolution.

This skepticism has proven to be a significant obstacle to peace. Analysts note that Sudan has not suffered from a lack of mediation efforts or diplomatic initiatives. Instead, the core issue lies in the unwillingness of key actors to engage in meaningful compromise. Both the military establishment and the RSF have been accused of prioritizing strategic advantage over national reconciliation.

The military leadership has consistently rejected certain international mechanisms, including multilateral frameworks proposed by regional and global actors. Meanwhile, the RSF has faced criticism for publicly endorsing ceasefires while allegedly violating them on the ground. This pattern of behavior has eroded trust and undermined efforts to establish a sustainable path toward peace.

For ordinary Sudanese citizens, the consequences have been devastating. The war has displaced millions, disrupted access to basic services, and created one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. Yet, their voices are often absent from political discussions, which are dominated by power struggles among elite factions.

Observers warn that even if a ceasefire were to be achieved, it would not, in itself, resolve the underlying issues that led to the conflict. Sudan’s crisis is rooted in long-standing structural problems, including political exclusion, economic inequality, and the uneven distribution of resources. Without addressing these fundamental challenges, any peace agreement risks being temporary.

The need for a comprehensive post-war framework is therefore critical. Such a framework would require inclusive governance, equitable economic policies, and mechanisms for accountability and reconciliation. It would also necessitate the involvement of a broad range of stakeholders, including civil society groups, regional actors, and international partners.

The upcoming Berlin conference represents a potential opportunity to advance this agenda. However, its success will depend on the willingness of Sudanese parties to engage constructively and prioritize national interests over factional gains. It will also require sustained commitment from the international community, which must move beyond symbolic gestures and provide consistent support for peacebuilding efforts.

As Sudan stands on the brink of its fourth year of conflict, the stakes could not be higher. The risk of the crisis fading further from global attention is not merely a matter of perception; it has tangible consequences on the ground. Reduced visibility often translates into diminished humanitarian aid, weaker diplomatic pressure, and greater freedom for armed actors to operate with impunity.

Ultimately, the path forward hinges on a combination of internal and external factors. Sudanese leaders must recognize that dialogue is not optional but essential. At the same time, the international community must demonstrate that its commitment to Sudan extends beyond periodic conferences and statements.

Without these efforts, the war is likely to persist, deepening the country’s suffering and instability. And as history has shown, conflicts that are ignored do not disappear; they become more entrenched, more destructive, and far more difficult to resolve.

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