The ongoing mass demonstrations in Iran represent the largest wave of protests the country has experienced in roughly half a decade. While public unrest in Iran is not new, the scale, geographic spread, and underlying drivers of the current protests have drawn heightened regional attention. What began as demonstrations by bazaar merchants over worsening economic conditions quickly evolved into a nationwide expression of deeper frustration. Long-standing grievances related to political stagnation, limited economic opportunity, inflation, unemployment, and governance failures have converged, creating a volatile situation whose outcome remains uncertain.

At this stage, predictions about Iran’s political trajectory would be premature. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated notable resilience over the past four decades, weathering international sanctions, internal dissent, and regional conflict. Although the current environment appears fragmented and tense, there are few concrete indications that the state is on the verge of total collapse. However, history suggests that prolonged unrest, particularly if combined with external intervention or escalating violence, can produce unpredictable results. These outcomes could range from a sudden breakdown of centralized authority, as witnessed in Libya in 2011, to a prolonged period of instability and de facto fragmentation, similar to the Syrian experience.

While Iran is often analyzed primarily through the lens of Middle Eastern geopolitics, developments within its northern frontier deserve equal attention. The three South Caucasus states-Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan-are closely monitoring events with growing unease. Iran has historically regarded the South Caucasus as a zone of strategic interest, competing for influence with both Russia and Türkiye. The region’s importance is amplified by its role as a critical energy corridor, hosting major oil and gas pipelines that connect the Caspian Basin to European and global markets. Any instability emanating from Iran........

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