The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning over the trajectory of United States public finances, cautioning that the country’s national debt-now exceeding $38 trillion-poses mounting risks not only to domestic economic stability but also to the broader global financial system. According to the IMF’s latest Article IV consultation, US public debt is projected to climb to 140% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2031 if current fiscal policies remain unchanged.

For policymakers in Washington and observers worldwide-including analysts and journalists in emerging economies like Bangladesh-this assessment is not merely a technical fiscal note. It is a signal about systemic vulnerabilities in the world’s largest economy and issuer of the global reserve currency.

US national debt has surged past $38 trillion, reflecting a $2.25 trillion increase over the past year alone. Projections suggest it may approach $39 trillion by April. The fiscal deficit-the gap between government spending and revenues-has also widened significantly. It expanded from approximately $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2022 to about $1.8 trillion last year, according to IMF data.

These figures illustrate a structural imbalance rather than a temporary cyclical deviation. Persistent primary deficits, combined with rising interest costs due to higher benchmark rates, are driving debt accumulation at an accelerated pace. As the debt-to-GDP ratio rises, so does the government’s interest burden, creating a feedback loop: higher debt leads to higher borrowing costs, which in turn inflate deficits further.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva underscored the severity of the issue, describing the US current account deficit as “too big.” Her remarks point to interconnected imbalances-fiscal, trade, and external-that reinforce one another. A large fiscal deficit contributes to a widening current account gap, increasing reliance on foreign capital inflows.

A projected 140% debt-to-GDP ratio by 2031 would place the........

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