Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan has deteriorated and sunk to its lowest point in years. It is marked by constant recriminations, recurrent border skirmishes and a growing sense of strategic frustration in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. This frustration at deterioration was laid bare on December 10, when Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir issued a blunt warning to the Afghan Taliban: Kabul must choose between its ties with Pakistan and its alleged support for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP.

The statement, delivered at the National Ulema Conference in Islamabad with religious leaders of every persuasion in attendance, was remarkable not merely for its content but for what it revealed about Pakistan’s failing Afghan policy. Rarely has a Pakistani military chief addressed the Taliban in Kabul with such open coercion. The warning, which is essentially an ultimatum, signalled that Pakistan’s long-standing strategy of influencing Kabul through ideological affinity, diplomatic engagement, occasional cross-border strikes and increased deportation of Afghan refugees has run aground. Having failed to secure compliance from Afghan Taliban through these measures, Pakistan appears to have now started resorting to threats afresh with concurrence of religious leadership which otherwise maintain ties with their counterparts in Afghanistan.

Field Marshal Munir’s warning to the Afghan Taliban was framed as a matter of national security. Pakistan, he said, could not tolerate the continued presence of TTP fighters operating from Afghan soil, repeated the accusations that Kabul was shielding and sponsoring the group to conduct attacks against Pakistan. It was a reiteration of Islamabad’s recent messaging that continued ties with the TTP would come at the cost of its goodwill.

But ultimatums are rarely signs of strength in diplomacy. They are more often admissions of failure. For more than three years since the Taliban returned to........

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