Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the subsequent Western support for Ukraine—including sanctions against Russia—the Russian Federation seems to be relying more on China than ever before. However, despite official rhetoric describing this partnership as “limitless,” underlying tensions have begun to surface. Earlier this month, a report from The New York Times, based upon leaked internal documents from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), revealed significant distrust within Russia’s military and intelligence apparatus regarding China. These concerns relate not only to espionage and the unauthorized acquisition of technology, but also to potential territorial encroachment.

Composed purportedly between late 2023 and early 2024, the document highlights a notable intensification in Chinese intelligence recruitment activities targeting key Russian actors—including current and former officials, military experts, and prominent business figures—since the onset of the war in Ukraine. The document outlines several possible motivations behind Beijing’s covert efforts. Firstly, despite China’s substantial military modernization, its lack of participation in a direct armed conflict since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War leaves it strategically under-tested. This operational inexperience presents a vulnerability in light of China’s revisionist geopolitical ambitions. As such, intelligence on Russian military operations against Western-backed Ukrainian forces offers Beijing valuable insights into NATO........

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