The 2012 provincial election in Alberta provided an interesting case study on how support for an Official Opposition party can shift when a third option becomes competitive. In 2008, Alberta’s Liberal Party secured 26 per cent of the vote and nine seats in the legislature. Four years later, amidst the emergence of the Wildrose Party as the home for voters upset with the performance of the governing Progressive Conservatives, Alberta’s Liberals were reduced to 10 per cent of the vote and four seats.

The drop for Alberta’s Liberals from 2008 to 2012 has been the most precipitous for any Official Opposition party in Western Canada in this century. BC United seemed close to matching this feat in 2024. Four years ago, the then-called BC Liberals won 34 per cent of the vote and 28 seats under Andrew Wilkinson. In July, the rebranded BC United was in single digits (nine per cent), trailing the Conservative Party of BC (38 per cent) and the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) (41 per cent).

Research Co. began to measure voting intention in British Columbia immediately after Kevin Falcon was selected as leader of the BC Liberals in February 2022. At the time, the Official Opposition party could count on the support of 38 per cent of decided voters, eight points behind the BC NDP (46 per cent) and with the BC Conservatives at the same level they enjoyed running in a limited number of........

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