In Canadian federal campaigns, timing is everything. In 2015, a public that had grown tired of Stephen Harper—aided in part by exposure to an ad from the New Democratic Party recounting the misdeeds of government officials—saw in Justin Trudeau the perfect vehicle for change. In 2021, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole enjoyed the best week of his campaign when the fall of Kabul allowed him to discuss foreign affairs from his vantage point as a former soldier.

This year’s federal campaign was defined by U.S. Donald Trump and his overtures about making Canada an American state. We saw the proportion of Canadians who expressed concern about Canada-U.S. relations jump to 30 per cent in March, and remain high during the entire campaign.

The start of the fall has refocused Canadians on domestic issues. This month, practically half of Canadians (46 per cent) are worried primarily about the economy and jobs (24 per cent, up three points since July) or housing, homelessness and poverty (22 per cent, up four points).........

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