With just two weeks to go before election day in British Columbia, the race remains considerably tight. The governing BC NDP and the Conservative Party of BC are separated by a single point among decided voters (45 per cent to 44 per cent), with the BC Green Party at nine per cent.

The provincewide fluctuations are not significant when compared to our previous look at the electorate in September. The BC NDP keeps the upper hand in Metro Vancouver (44 per cent) and Vancouver Island (42 per cent), while the BC Conservatives remain ahead in the Fraser Valley (48 per cent), Southern BC (47 per cent) and Northern B.C. (also 47 per cent).

The electoral system provides an advantage to the incumbent New Democrats, who are leading in regions that elect 58 members to the legislative assembly: 43 in Metro Vancouver and 15 in Vancouver Island. The BC Conservatives may enjoy large victories in the remaining areas of the province, but have fewer seats to secure: 15 in Southern B.C., 10 in Northern B.C. and another 10 in the Fraser Valley.

The voting intention question outlines how imperfect the desired coalescing of BC United into the BC Conservatives has been. While 61 per cent of likely voters who supported the BC Liberals under Andrew Wilkinson in the 2020 provincial ballot are now behind the BC Conservatives, 32 per cent say they will vote for the BC NDP. Optimists will indubitably point to the two-to-one margin favouring the BC........

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