We are used to political candidates describing any election that features them as “the most important in our lifetime.” This has definitely been the case in the United States.

At first, 2024 heralded a repeat of the elections of 1952 and 1956, which featured the same presidential contenders for both Republicans and Democrats. Now, after a less than stellar pre-convention debate by U.S. President Joe Biden, we will have, for the second time, a woman heading the Democratic ticket and facing Donald Trump as the Republican nominee.

This will be the fourth United States presidential election where I am able to ask Americans about their choices. A look at what transpired in the past three contests allows for a deeper explanation of what could happen this week in the United States—and the extreme importance of two groups of voters in the final outcome: women and young adults.

In 2012, my final poll had incumbent Barack Obama of the Democratic Party defeating challenger Mitt Romney of the Republican Party (51 per cent to 46 per cent). Once all the votes were tallied, Obama received 52 per cent of the vote to Romney’s 47 per cent. The survey gave Obama a six-point lead among women (52 per cent to 46 per cent). Only 32 per cent of decided voters aged 18-34 told us they were backing Romney.

In 2016, my final poll placed Democrat Hillary Clinton with a four-point lead over Republican........

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