We are less than three months away from a scheduled provincial election in British Columbia. The illusions of an easy victory by the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) – assisted by a split of the centre-right vote between the re-branded BC United and the upstart Conservative Party of BC – are effectively gone. The summer has heralded a close race, with different challenges for all political organizations.

In late July, the BC NDP holds a three-point edge over the BC Conservatives among decided voters across the province (41 per cent to 38 per cent). The BC Green Party is a distant third with 10 per cent, followed by BC United with nine per cent.

Since June, the Conservatives have gained five points, while the Greens – following the announcement of incumbent legislator Adam Olsen’s retirement – are down by the same margin. BC United is in single digits for the first time, while the New Democrats have gained a point.

The BC NDP remains ahead in Metro Vancouver (44 per cent) and Vancouver Island (43 per cent). With the BC Conservatives solidifying their support in northern B.C. (57 per cent) and the Fraser Valley (47 per cent), southern B.C. emerges as a key battleground. Right now, the two parties are practically tied: the New Democrats at 40 per cent and the Conservatives at 38 per cent.

This region is a perfect example of how much a party’s fortunes can change. In 2020, the BC Liberals secured 44 per cent of........

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