The two-party race for the provincial government that started to develop earlier this year has solidified with the disappearance of BC United. As was the case in 2005, 2009, 2017 and 2020, voters in British Columbia will see three party leaders in debates and public appearances, instead of the four they were exposed to in 2001 and 2013.

We have heard compelling arguments about where the voters who remained with BC United – fewer than one in 10 of those who had made up their minds two months ago – would go. If a proper merger had been achieved in December 2023, the answer to this question would probably be simpler.

Our first look at the electorate since late July gives us a tight province-wide race, with the governing BC New Democratic Party (NDP) at 44 per cent (up three points) and the Conservative Party of BC at 42 per cent (up four points). The BC Green Party is third with 10 per cent (unchanged), while three per cent of decided voters (up one point) would cast a ballot for other parties or independent candidates.

A severe gender gap is continuing to take shape, with 47 per cent of women preferring the BC NDP and 48 per cent of men ready to back the BC Conservatives. On the generational front, most decided voters aged 55 and over remain in the BC NDP column (51 per cent to 41 per cent), while the BC Conservatives are first........

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