Crude surge hands Azerbaijan windfall amid Hormuz standoff |
The world today finds itself navigating the most treacherous waters since the end of the Second World War. As populist radicalism surges across the West and Russia remains mired in the Ukrainian mud, the recent joint U.S.-Israeli military intervention in Iran was expected by many to be the final blow to a teetering regime. Indeed, following the massive domestic unrest that claimed thousands of lives and the subsequent precision strikes on February 28, 2026, which resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of high-ranking officials, the collapse of the Islamic Republic seemed imminent. However, those waiting for a swift regime change were met with a starkly different reality. The religious establishment did not crumble; instead, it demonstrated a resilient institutional memory that has begun to turn the tide of the conflict.
The United States now finds itself in a predicament strikingly similar to that of Russia, which is unable to translate battlefield success into strategic victory. Despite the decapitation of its leadership, Tehran remains defiant at the negotiating table, frustrating every American demand. The central point of contention remains the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that exposes the fundamental flaw in President Trump’s business-centric approach to warfare. While Iran has undoubtedly lost the war at the tactical and operational levels, it is winning the strategic battle of attrition. Had more seasoned politicians, for example, like George Bush or other previous US presidents, been at the helm, the outcome might have been a total victory, but Trump’s belief that complex ideological systems can be dismantled with mere "transactional" bombardment has proved to be a grave miscalculation.
To understand why this regime persists, one must look........