A new major investment phase is beginning in Azerbaijan’s energy sector. The adoption of the final investment decision on the full-scale development of the Absheron gas-condensate field could turn the project into one of the main sources of Azerbaijan’s gas production and export capacity in the coming years. Capital investment of approximately $4.2 billion is involved, and the main question is how much economic value this investment will create for Azerbaijan.

The recoverable gas reserves of Absheron are estimated at approximately 140 billion cubic meters. The first phase of the field came on stream in 2023 and has the capacity to produce 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year and 12,000 barrels of condensate per day. The new Full Field Development phase will increase the field’s total gas production to 6 billion cubic meters per year and condensate production to 47,000 barrels per day. The new phase is expected to come on stream in 2029.

The key figure here is the additional 4.5 billion cubic meters of gas. This is a significant volume for Azerbaijan’s gas market. In a simple calculation, if the average selling price of 1,000 cubic meters of gas is $200, the annual gross sales........

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