The US-Iran relationship, which entered a brief and fragile ceasefire on June 17 but remained punctuated by periodic flare-ups, appears to be shifting into a new phase of confrontation as that arrangement expires. Washington is now signalling that it wants to tighten its grip on the Strait of Hormuz and is increasingly calling on Tehran to raise the white flag.

What is striking is how sharply the American tone has changed. Only a few months ago, Washington appeared considerably more cautious in dealing with Tehran. Today, the rhetoric is far more direct, while the US military is projecting growing confidence in both its tactical capabilities and its ability to make decisions on the battlefield. The message from Washington is increasingly clear that the United States believes it has room to manoeuvre.

Iran's tactical response, however, remains much harder to read.

There are several known and unknown factors at play. Iran is a Middle Eastern power fighting on its own doorstep, and its geography gives its ground forces certain advantages. Tehran knows the terrain, understands the operating environment and has decades of experience preparing for the possibility of a conflict with a technologically superior adversary.

But geography can only go so far.

In terms of weaponry, ammunition, military technology and air-defence capabilities, Iran remains significantly weaker than the United States. That imbalance inevitably raises questions about how Tehran could sustain a conventional war against Washington. Yet Iran's difficult and rugged terrain could also serve as a natural shield, making a straightforward ground campaign far more complicated than the balance of military hardware might initially suggest.

This is where history begins to matter.

The Iran-Iraq War offers a number of lessons........

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