The year 2025 confirmed that the international system is no longer anchored in the certainties that defined the early post-Cold War era. It did not, however, deliver a clean break into a fully formed multipolar order. Instead, global politics settled into an uncomfortable in-between phase marked by diffusion of power, strategic caution and persistent instability. As 2026 approaches, this transitional character looks set to harden rather than resolve.

Throughout 2025, the United States remained the single most influential actor in global affairs. Its military reach, technological leadership, financial dominance through the dollar and dense alliance networks continued to shape outcomes across regions. Yet Washington increasingly found itself constrained by the limits of unilateral action. Its ability to impose political solutions without negotiation or burden sharing has steadily diminished. This erosion does not amount to a decline in the traditional sense but reflects a system in which influence is more contested, and outcomes are more negotiated.

China continued to expand its weight within this environment. In 2025, Beijing reinforced its role as a central economic and technological pole while carefully avoiding direct confrontation with the United States. Its strategy remained calibrated rather than disruptive, focused on incremental gains in influence across Asia, the Global South and strategic industries. Meanwhile, Russia sustained its relevance through military power and geopolitical disruption, even as its economic and technological foundations came under prolonged strain.

The resulting system can best be described as limited multipolarity. The United States remains the primary centre of gravity, but it no longer exercises exclusive authority. Secondary powers such as China, Russia and India increasingly shape the margins and sometimes the direction of global decision-making. This configuration is likely to persist into 2026, producing a world that is more fragmented, more transactional and less predictable than before.

The Russia-Ukraine war was the clearest illustration of this evolving order in 2025. The conflict did not move decisively towards resolution, nor did it escalate into a wider confrontation between major powers. Instead, it settled into a prolonged war of attrition with shifting tactical advantages but no strategic breakthrough. Ukraine remained heavily dependent on Western military and financial support, while Russia absorbed mounting economic costs without abandoning its core objectives.

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