Choking Iran or poisoning Gulf? True cost of targeting Kharg [ANALYSIS] |
The US–Israel–Iran war has now entered its first full month. Yet despite four extremely tense and, at times, existentially significant weeks marked by a series of serious developments, the core context of the conflict remains largely unchanged.
During the initial week of the war, Iran’s heavy human losses prompted widespread international commentary suggesting that a change of power in the country might be imminent. However, the rapid internal consolidation and regrouping within Iran recalled a historical precedent. In the 1980s, on the eve of the Iran–Iraq war, large crowds in Tehran had taken to the streets to express profound dissatisfaction with the ruling authorities. As the war unfolded, the situation, however, shifted abruptly, giving way to a form of consolidation similar to what is being observed today, namely, a tightening of unity around the government.
In February 2026, even before the outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump publicly called on the Iranian people to "take to the streets and protest—people of Iran, we are coming, we are with you." However, at a critical juncture, the momentum of unrest within Iran changed dramatically. Despite the imposition of harsh punitive measures against protesters domestically, large segments of the population began to view their expectations as increasingly unrealistic and, consequently, shifted towards supporting the government.
It is no secret that Iran........