Japan’s Hormuz shock triggers Caspian oil pivot as INPEX rewrites supply chains |
For decades, Tokyo’s energy planners quietly recognized an uncomfortable reality: Japan’s economy was balanced on a single thread – a 33-kilometre-wide strip of water separating Iran and Oman. When US and Israeli strikes on Iran precipitated the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026, that thread snapped. But instead of chaos, there was the swift execution of plans that had been quietly developing over the years.
At the centre of one of those plans is INPEX, Japan's largest oil and gas explorer, and its stakes in two fields that, until recently, existed primarily to supply European markets. Now, those Caspian barrels are being redirected home.
The scale of Japan's vulnerability is difficult to overstate. As of January 2026, 95.1% of Japan's crude oil imports originated from the Middle East, with roughly three-quarters of that volume transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Japan alone was importing 1.6 million barrels per day through that route. When the blockade took hold, over 150 tankers were left stranded outside the strait, unable to load or depart.
On 16 March, Tokyo announced the largest emergency reserve drawdown since the reserve system was established in 1978, 80 million barrels, enough to cover approximately 45 days of consumption. The move underscored both the urgency and........