Azerbaijan’s non-oil surge offers hope for bigger economy |
The first step with regard to the Oliver Wyman projection is, of course, the math. Azerbaijan’s GDP in 2025 was estimated at around $75 billion. Growing it to $150 billion by 2035 implies growing twice as fast within ten years – i.e., achieving an annual average growth of about 7.2%. The most recent projection of the IMF for 2026 is 2.2%. The budget of the Azerbaijani state is based on the price assumption of $70 per barrel of oil. Oil production declined from 41.6 million tons in 2015 to 27.7 million tons in 2025; even worse, during the first quarter of 2025, Azerbaijan’s economy experienced negative GDP growth of 0.3%.
The report itself, "Azerbaijan 3.0: The Market Makers of Tomorrow," cannot be readily disregarded either. According to Oliver Wyman, there are four pivotal changes – specifically, the development of downstream petrochemicals, energy trading services, logistics orchestration, and experience-oriented tourism – that may potentially alter Azerbaijan’s growth story. What is particularly interesting here is that all four areas are quite realistic, both in terms of the foreign investments they require and their feasibility as a technological option.
Numbers as it stands out:
- $75 billion: GDP in 2025, which serves as the baseline to be doubled.
- 1.4%: Expected real GDP growth in 2025, down from 4.1% in 2024.
- $85 billion: Combined reserves of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) and the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), providing a substantial fiscal buffer.
- 52.7%: Share of non-oil GDP by the end of 2025, marking the first time it will be above 50%.
*Source: State Statistics Committee
Let's clarify the specific areas and directions where the process will take place:
Downstream Petrochemicals
Currently, 91.5% of Azerbaijan's exports consist of largely unprocessed mineral fuels. While Azerbaijan exports oil and gas, there is also potential to export fertilizers, plastics, and chemicals. By doing so, the country could capture the value-added processing margin that is currently sent abroad. Establishing advanced petrochemical complexes could generate between $8 to $12 billion annually by 2035.
*However, achieving this goal requires significant capital investment and better........