Armenia heads to polls: state and old elites collide [ANALYSIS] |
Armenia is once again entering election season in a familiar mood: fragmented and quietly uncertain about its own direction. They have been here before. The billboards, the rallies, the familiar faces making familiar promises, and underneath it all, that particular brand of South Caucasian political anxiety that never quite settles. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for 7 June 2026, and while the names at the top of the ballot may be known quantities, the atmosphere surrounding them feels newer and considerably more combustible than in previous cycles.
Robert Kocharyan is running again. Armenia's second president, a granite-faced survivor of the first Karabakh war, has been nominated as the opposition's candidate for prime minister by the 'Hayastan' bloc. For anyone who has followed Armenian politics over the past decade, this is not a surprise.
But his return deserves more than a shrug, let us be cohesive.
This man, who represents an entire political era, one that Pashinyan's 2018 velvet revolution was expressly designed to bury. Kocharyan has declared that Pashinyan has "no chance of staying in power," arguing that while the prime minister retains some influence over part of the electorate, his support has significantly weakened and his ratings are in decline. Whether that assessment reflects genuine political intelligence or opposition wishful thinking is, for now, an open question.
Current Prime Minister Pashinyan enters this election in a position that defies easy characterisation. He is neither weakened enough to be written off nor secure enough to be comfortable. His Civil Contract party retains a structural advantage in a fragmented political landscape, but the atmosphere surrounding his government has grown noticeably more fraught. As a result of the intense negotiations post Patriotic War (Second Karabakh War), he accepted reality, abandoned his territorial claims, and sought to improve relations with neighboring countries. This effort culminated in the signing of a trilateral joint statement among Azerbaijan, the United States, and Armenia on August 8, 2025. It has been showing great improvement ever since, as Azerbaijan-Armenia relations are on a positive outlook. Diplomatic engagements, trade exchanges, etc - all of this progress has been published thoroughly.
Now, I will explain why the point I mentioned here is important later in the article. For now, let's examine the situation leading up to these turbulent processes.
The latest polling data is troubling for the incumbent: in one survey, Pashinyan registered only 17.3 per cent........