These are volatile times on the Colorado River, even if water levels in Lake Mead and Lake Powell are relatively stable.

The rules expire at the end of 2026 that spell out how much water stays in the nation’s largest reservoirs and who would be forced to take cuts when there’s not enough to go around.

And while everyone agrees that we need to use a lot less water to match a river that now produces a lot less water, negotiations have been at a standstill for months over who should shoulder those cuts, and when.

But things have taken a turn, maybe for the better. Maybe worse. It’s too early to know.

That’s what makes it so volatile.

First, Arizona officials spoke frankly during a public meeting about the elephant in the room: a “compact call.”

That’s what might happen if the Upper Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming fail over time to deliver enough water to the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, as spelled out in a foundational agreement guiding river allocations, the Colorado River Compact.

If the Upper Basin can’t deliver 75 million acre-feet over 10 years — which might happen in 2027, thanks to several years of lower-than-historical releases — the Lower Basin........

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