The Climate Myth that Sought to Change Our Way of Life |
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The Climate Myth that Sought to Change Our Way of Life
For more than three decades, climate policy has been built on a central premise: that rising populations and expanding economies would inevitably drive ever-increasing pressure on the planet.
Roland Duchatelet and Samuel Furfari | May 15, 2026
On May 5, 2026, without fanfare, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made a significant announcement: its most dire climate scenario, the RCP 8.5, is now classified as “unlikely.” For nearly 15 years, this scenario fueled tens of thousands of articles, entire TV talk shows, and the eco-anxiety of an entire generation. It was the raw material for the 5°C projections that were brandished to justify ever more restrictions, taxes, and bans. Today, the IPCC tacitly acknowledges that it will not come to pass. Some commentators welcome this. Others, more discreetly, explain that it was never anything more than an “intellectual exercise.” A curious exercise, whose conclusions shaped 30 years of public policy.
Media outlets celebrate this abandonment but carefully fail to mention that RCP 8.5 was based on the assumption of a global population of 13 billion people. The scenario was far-fetched not just for the past few years, but from day one. Demographers knew it. Successive United Nations reports were already pointing to a very different trajectory. But once fear had taken hold, no one wanted to check the math anymore.
For more than three decades, climate policy -- and not only model RCP 8.5 -- has been built on a central premise: that rising populations and expanding economies would........