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The Future Emirates of Afghanistan

5 7 13

America and its neglected allies in Afghanistan are in shock and trying to absorb and understand their defeat there. For the moment, the Biden administration is trying to spin their horrific and botched withdrawal as a kind of heroic Dunkirk, where they claim to have saved thousands of Afghani supporters, airlifting them directly to the USA without vetting them.

It is clear that the vast majority of these Afghans were simply looking for an escape from the Taliban. About 95% per cent of the evacuees had nothing to do with the government of the USA, or of Afghanistan.

They are simply wise, crafty and good at using a crisis to further the best interests of their families, in a successful attempt to get into an America that will give them and their children enormous oopportunity, without having to go through the usual bureacracy for overseas applicants who want to come to America and become citizens. They are like the Mexicans on the southern border who come to America on foot. But the Afghans arrive in style, by plane.

America will absorb its defeat. The Taliban will become more aggressive and the US and its future allies will somehow return, perhaps gradually, perhaps suddenly to fight the Jihad that is facing the West there and, to show its enemies, China, Russia and its “frenemies” like Pakistan, that it cannot be toyed with.

But what kind of government will emerge in Afghanistan then? The answer is not obvious, because the West has projected its own experience of the nation state onto Afghanistan, as they do and have done in sub Saharan Africa. Therefore they do not see what is staring them in the face on the ground, a country dominated by different tribes with competing interests.

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