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Is Iran on the verge of another revolution?

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This week, amid the fallout of tough US sanctions and growing political uncertainty, many Iranians are marking the 10th anniversary of the Green Movement. Ten years ago, mass protests erupted after suspicions arose that the general elections had been rigged in favour of the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Reformist candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi rejected the results and their supporters took to the streets to express their anger at what they saw as the trampling of democratic procedures in Iran.

Today, 10 years later, many are wondering whether Iran is on the eve of another Green Movement or even a revolution. Indeed, some scholars have pointed out that there are many socioeconomic and political factors that could make mass unrest in the short term highly likely. Others, however, have been arguing Iran is not on the verge of fundamental change at all. So which one is true? Will Iran see another wave of unrest and revolution or will the status quo prevail as the Islamic Republic resists foreign pressure?

In its long history, Iran has witnessed many revolutionary movements and upheavals, perhaps more than many of its neighbours in the Middle East. Today, four decades after the Iranian revolution of 1979, the country retains its revolutionary spirit, maintained by a vibrant civil society and a strong and rebellious intelligentsia.

Iranalso has a very young and educated population; nearly 10 million out of its 81 million inhabitants have university degrees and currently, some four million are studying at institutions of higher education. Historically, Iranian university campuses have always been politicised, while students have been at the forefront of protests, alongside clerics, workers, and the merchant class.

Iranian society is also quite tech-savvy and well-connected to the........

© Al Jazeera