Three messages reset conditions in eastern Yemen |
Political and military signals have intensified in Yemen’s already complex theatre. In an unusually short period of time, three successive statements were issued within a single context, beginning with an official Yemeni request from President Rashad al-Alimi, the head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, the governing body of the internationally recognised government. This was followed by an operational response from the Saudi-led coalition, and then a political message by the Saudi minister of defence that defines the moves on the ground and the directions they take.
What happened cannot be interpreted as an isolated move, nor as part of a routine truce. The sequence suggests an arrangement that uses Yemeni legitimacy as the political framework for a Saudi move aimed at restraining the expansion of an ally advancing eastward, while at the same time reducing the Houthis’ chances of exploiting any rift within the opposing camp. This is why the weight of the three statements exceeded their words, as they moved the crisis from an open tug-of-war to a clear path based on an official request, then a field response, then a political message that sets the limits of movement and defines its direction.
The names of Yemen’s governorates may seem like marginal details to a non-Arab reader, but Hadramout and al-Mahra are exceptions. Hadramout represents economic depth for Yemen with its oil and gas resources and related infrastructure, and also has a vital border crossing with Saudi Arabia, making it part of the equation of both border security and trade. Al-Mahra, due to its border location with Oman and Saudi Arabia, controls ports, crossings and movement routes that affect regional security and the local economy. This location makes any tension in the east a quintessential border issue, not merely a local crisis, and any large-scale instability there will not remain confined within Yemen, as it impacts the country’s economy, raises border sensitivity within the region, and stirs concerns about the stability of trade routes.
For this reason, Riyadh views the east as an area it seeks to neutralise from chaos as much as possible. With the expansion of the United Arab Emirates-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) and its forces towards Hadramout and al-Mahra, the issue has shifted from a limited field movement to a test of the limits of the........