The Arab Spring hasn’t ended, and Arab regimes know it |
Exactly 15 years ago, the self-immolation of Mohammed Bouazizi in Tunisia prompted an unprecedented pan-Arab protest movement that demonstrated the overwhelming Arab desire for more democratic forms of government.
In extraordinary scenes, millions of protesters across several countries rallied against authoritarian leaders who had been in power for decades, challenging political systems defined by repression, corruption, and exclusion.
Protester complaints revolved around centralised power structures that bred corruption and injustice and concentrated wealth in the hands of a relative few. What followed was not simply a regional revolt, but a historic demand for dignity, accountability, and democratic rule.
Predictably, regimes responded with heavy-handed tactics – numerous demonstrators were killed, beaten, or arrested.
But the pro-democracy movement achieved significant early successes.
Within months, four longstanding dictators – Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, and Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh – were all toppled.
In a handful of countries – Bahrain, Algeria, and Iraq among them – regimes successfully quelled protests, ending them before they could gain serious momentum.
Protest movements in other countries resulted in limited reforms or, in the case of Syria, prolonged civil war without immediate regime change.
Like Syria, Libya and Yemen ultimately descended into violent conflict.
Egypt and Tunisia were the only Arab Spring countries that could point to significant longer-term successes – both countries quickly toppled their dictators and almost immediately began democratic transitions.
Despite mixed results, observers generally praised the Arab Spring as a revolutionary democratic moment for a region long mired in tyranny. Yet, 15 years on, it is clear that while popular demands for democracy endured, authoritarian regimes have learned how to ensure such uprisings would never succeed again.
In both Egypt and Tunisia, democratic transitions appeared initially to take hold: Constituent assemblies were formed, new constitutions were drafted, new political parties and media outlets were established, and new political leaders were elected.
Importantly, in both countries, parties formed by the Muslim Brotherhood – which has long been well-organised in much of the region – quickly gained influence.
Some observers viewed the political rise and influence of centrist Islamists as something benign, even positive, while others argued it posed a problem.
Arguments about the potential merits or shortcomings of political Islam aside, both Egypt and Tunisia were initially seen as hopeful models of Arab democratic transformation, precisely because they suggested that authoritarianism was not an Arab inevitability.
Although their transitions were fraught with serious........