This Valentine’s Day, chocolate prices are no longer at last year’s peak, but cheap chocolate has not made a comeback, and it probably never will. Last year’s cocoa price crisis, driven by a combination of extreme heat, drought and disease in key producing regions, may have eased. But the aftertaste remains: A market that no longer behaves the way it used to, because the landscapes that grow cocoa are no longer the same. And the world’s unwitting appetite for cheap chocolate at the expense of biodiversity is part of the reason.

Cocoa is one of the most rainfall-dependent crops in the tropics, grown mainly by smallholders with few safety nets. Because cocoa production is concentrated in a handful of regions, a bad season in one place can quickly ripple across global supply. That fragility was laid bare in 2024, when the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which produce nearly 60 percent of the world’s cocoa, were hit by climate extremes that slashed harvests. Prices surged by more than 300 percent, squeezing some farmers, enriching others, and leaving consumers paying for the uncertainty.

The problem is not simply that cocoa is vulnerable. It is that we have built a cocoa economy that magnifies the vulnerability. For decades, the world has chased low prices and high output, and too often that has meant converting forest landscapes into farmland, from West Africa to parts of Latin America and Southeast Asia.

But forests are not optional. They regulate rainfall, protect soils, and create the microclimates on which cocoa depends. Full-sun cocoa farms can produce higher yields in the short term, but the sugar rush is followed by a costly crash: Depleted soils, limited protection from heat and drought that is on the increase, and little for farmers to fall back on when the monocrops fail. Yields fall, farms expand deeper into forests to compensate, and the cycle repeats.

This is why cocoa’s price volatility is not a temporary blip. It is a warning sign:........

© Al Jazeera