International politics today feels like a collective sleepwalk into the abyss. Three trends are particularly alarming. Artificial intelligence is globalising and turbocharging old and new threats. Meanwhile, no state is strong enough to impose order. And, as in earlier periods of global crisis, geopolitical blocs are hardening, with international cooperation increasingly portrayed as weakness. Alas, there is ample reason to fear a repetition of the worst of history.

Much attention has focused on the risk of war between the US and China, as shifts in hegemonic power historically produce conflict. That is not, however, what is happening. Instead, we are approaching an international order with no hegemon, with several states and regional blocs competing for influence. Using the jargon of international relations theory, we are on the cusp of genuine global multipolarity.

Artificial intelligence is adding further stress to existing power structures. On the one hand, we are all being transformed into godlike figures — soon no innovation or information is beyond our reach. But it is also disempowering everyone, creating new threats and making old ones harder to contain.

Larger states are finding it increasingly difficult to convert power into control. This is already evident in the military domain, where inexpensive drones and AI-assisted targeting have changed traditional hierarchies. The US, with its vast military arsenal, is unable to force an isolated and bankrupt theocracy in Iran to bend the knee; Russia’s failed attempt at subjugating Ukraine is another example of a much more powerful state not getting its way.

New technology is making the loss of control even more evident in other domains. The next pandemic could originate in a........

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