What would be the impact of a US attack on Iran? |
Growing tensions between the United States and Iran have left the two countries one spark away from a fire. An unprecedented accumulation of US military forces in the Middle East, coupled with Washington’s reliance on gunboat diplomacy, has distinctly increased the risk of war—one that engulfs Iran and the region, with far-reaching regional and global costs.
In the aftermath of the recent crackdown on protests in Iran, US President Donald Trump announced that it was time to remove Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His administration then deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and supporting warplanes, along with various air defence assets—including additional THAAD and Patriot missile systems—across the Middle East.
As military assets have been accumulated, Trump has threatened that if Iran does not agree to a deal, “the next attack will be far worse” than last June’s US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
From the US perspective, a favourable agreement would require Iran to demolish its nuclear enrichment programme and ballistic missile capabilities, while also pulling back its regional influence. Such maximum demands, combined with Tehran’s deep distrust of negotiations with the US, make a deal highly unlikely. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, clarified on Monday that civilian nuclear capability, as well as missile and drone capabilities, represent a “red line” for Tehran.
This does not necessarily signal a permanent diplomatic stalemate. However, Tehran interprets the US’s maximum........