Israel’s recognition of Somaliland on December 26 had little to do with the long-standing aspirations of communities living in the breakaway region of Somaliland in northwest Somalia. It was, instead, a product of shifting geopolitics and a rapidly fragmenting global order. An issue once confined to the margins has since been pulled into the centre of regional and international power rivalries.

The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor, anchored by the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world’s most vital maritime chokepoints, have become arenas of intense competition. Israel, the Gulf countries, Turkey, Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea and China are all now deeply engaged. Within this context, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland signals something broader: the growing use of secessionist movements as disruptive instruments of geopolitical strategy across the Middle East and the Horn of Africa.

What some experts describe as an “Axis of Secession” is already visible in Libya, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and Syria. Led by Israel and supported by a network of regional partners, this axis targets countries whose central governments, hollowed out by conflict, exercise only partial control over their territory. The logic is simple: weaken central authority, bolster breakaway regions, and cultivate dependent entities willing to align with Israel and sign onto the Abraham Accords.

For Israel, these emerging client polities offer strategic footholds in volatile regions. From them, it can monitor rivals, project power, secure key maritime routes and expand intelligence networks. Over time, Israel also hopes this strategy will coerce “mother states” into reluctantly joining the Abraham Accords themselves. Yet this approach carries a contradiction. Rather than consolidating the accords, it risks destabilising the region further and eroding their legitimacy. Saudi Arabia, long regarded by Washington and Tel Aviv as the ultimate prize of regional normalisation, has taken the lead in assembling a concerted effort to block the Axis of Secession.

Beyond broader geopolitical rivalries, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is closely tied to competition over access to the Red Sea. The Bab al-Mandab Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, carries around 10 percent of global trade. Control over ports and coastlines along this route confers outsized leverage over international commerce. Somaliland’s long coastline has therefore become a strategic prize. By recognising Somaliland, Israel seeks to entrench itself within the Horn of Africa’s strategic geography.

This competition was evident in January 2024, when Ethiopia signed a controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland,........

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