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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

The Conversation

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Liberals will have difficulty forming government after final Tasmanian results

At the March 23 Tasmanian state election, the Liberals won 14 of the 35 lower house seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN)...

07.04.2024 8

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Difficult for Liberals to form government after final Tasmanian results

At the March 23 Tasmanian state election, the Liberals won 14 of the 35 lower house seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN)...

07.04.2024 20

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Federal Essential poll the worst for Labor this term; SA Labor gains Dunstan at byelection

A national Essential poll, conducted March 20–24 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 50–44 lead including undecided, a reversal of a...

28.03.2024 8

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor drops to a 51–49 lead in Newspoll; Labor chooses to concede Tasmanian election

A national Newspoll, conducted March 18–22 from a sample of 1,223, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous...

25.03.2024 9

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Adrian Beaumont

Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority

Tasmania has five electorates that each return seven members using the proportional Hare-Clark system, for a total of 35 seats. A quota is one-eighth...

23.03.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Liberals likely to easily win most seats in Tasmania; huge swings to LNP at Queensland byelections

The Tasmanian state election is this Saturday. The 35 total lower house seats will be elected in five seven-member electorates using the proportional...

22.03.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls; UK Labour far ahead as election approaches

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties’ nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of...

19.03.2024 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Dire polls for Labor in Tasmania and Queensland with elections upcoming

The Tasmanian state election is on March 23. A uComms poll for The Australia Institute, conducted March 4–5 from a sample of 1,174, gave the...

15.03.2024 20

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Adrian Beaumont

Albanese’s ratings surge in YouGov poll; Tasmanian poll suggests difficult to form government

A national YouGov poll, conducted February 24 to March 5 from a sample of 1,539, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since an early February YouGov...

08.03.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor holds Dunkley but slumps in two national polls; Liberals lead in Tasmania

With all ordinary booths in Dunkley having primary vote counts and 51% of enrolled votes counted, The Poll Bludger is projecting a final Labor margin...

02.03.2024 9

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor steady in Newspoll but down in Resolve; it’s tied in Queensland

A federal Newspoll, conducted February 19–23 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll three weeks...

26.02.2024 6

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Adrian Beaumont

Jacqui Lambie Network could win balance of power at Tasmanian election; Labor lead steady in federal polls

Tasmanian Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff today announced the Tasmanian election would be held on March 23, more than a year early. The election was...

14.02.2024 7

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor’s Newspoll lead unchanged since December as 62% support stage three changes

A national Newspoll, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in...

04.02.2024 8

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Adrian Beaumont

Trump wins New Hampshire primary and closes in on Republican nomination; Labor gains in Australian polls

Former President Donald Trump has defeated former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary with a...

24.01.2024 8

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Freshwater national poll holds steady at a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition as Trump set for big win in Iowa caucus

A national Freshwater poll for The Sunday Telegraph had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from a Freshwater poll for The...

15.01.2024 8

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor regains lead in Newspoll after tie, but Freshwater has a 50–50 tie

A national Newspoll, conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,219, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous...

18.12.2023 8

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Adrian Beaumont

US elections 2024: a Biden vs Trump rematch is very likely, with Trump leading Biden

The United States general election will be held on November 5 2024. In early 2024, there are Democratic and Republican presidential nominating...

13.12.2023 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it’s close in Queensland

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady...

06.12.2023 9

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Adrian Beaumont

Extra senators for ACT and NT will benefit left but increase malapportionment

The Poll Bludger has summarised the final report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) that was released Monday. The most...

29.11.2023 9

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor loses four points in two Newspolls to slump to a 50–50 tie

A federal Newspoll, conducted November 20–24 from a sample of 1,216, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50 after preferences, a two-point gain...

27.11.2023 30

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Adrian Beaumont

Federal Labor barely ahead in latest polls; Victorian Labor takes a hit but holds Mulgrave at byelection

There have been three federal polls since my October 13 article on the federal Resolve poll that still had Labor far ahead. These polls show a tie in...

19.11.2023 9

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor still far ahead in Resolve poll, in contrast to other recent polls

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted November 1–5 from a sample of 1,602, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (down two since...

13.11.2023 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain...

06.11.2023 9

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Adrian Beaumont

National drops 2 seats on NZ final results, and will need NZ First to form government

The final results of the October 14 New Zealand election have been released. The National Party has won a total of 48 seats (down two from the...

03.11.2023 7

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor recovers in Morgan after post-referendum slump; LNP leads in Queensland

A federal Morgan poll, conducted October 22–29 from a sample of 1,375, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, a 3.5-point gain for Labor since the previous...

01.11.2023 7

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Adrian Beaumont

NZ election: special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated...

31.10.2023 8

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Adrian Beaumont

Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead

With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin. “No” has easily won in every state...

17.10.2023 20

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Adrian Beaumont

Voice to Parliament referendum has been heavily defeated nationally and in all states

The Voice to Parliament referendum has failed convincingly after the ABC projected large victories for the “no” side in the national vote and all...

15.10.2023 10

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Adrian Beaumont

NZ Election 2023: polls understated the right, but National-ACT may struggle for a final majority

While the tide well and truly went out on Labour on election night, there are still several factors complicating the formation of a National and ACT...

15.10.2023 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Voice to Parliament referendum is heavily defeated nationally and in all states

14.10.2023 4

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Adrian Beaumont

Voice to Parliament referendum is heavily defeated nationally and in majority of states

The Voice to Parliament referendum has failed convincingly after the ABC projected large victories for the “no” side in the national vote and in a...

14.10.2023 4

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Voice to Parliament referendum is defeated after majority of states vote ‘no’

The Voice to Parliament referendum is projected to fail after the ABC called “no” victories in four states – New South Wales, Tasmania, South...

14.10.2023 5

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Final Voice polls have ‘no’ leading by sizeable to landslide margins

The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on Saturday. Polls close at 6pm AEDT in the south-eastern states, 6:30pm in South...

13.10.2023 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a...

12.10.2023 5

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Adrian Beaumont

Voice support falls in Newspoll to new low, but is up in Resolve though still well behind

The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on Saturday. Polls close at 6pm AEDT in the south-eastern states, 6:30pm in South...

09.10.2023 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Voice support up in Essential poll, but it is still behind

The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14. A national Essential poll, conducted September 27 to October 1 from a...

03.10.2023 5

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

NZ Election 2023: latest poll trends show the left regaining some ground and NZ First as possible kingmaker

Yesterday’s 1News-Verian poll, and the Newshub-Reid Research poll reported earlier in the week, both show flattening trend lines – but they are...

28.09.2023 4

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor and Albanese recover in Newspoll as Dutton falls, but the Voice’s slump continues

A national Newspoll, conducted September 18–22 from a sample of 1,239, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous...

25.09.2023 7

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Adrian Beaumont

Support for both the Voice and Labor drop in latest Essential poll

A majority of Australians have indicated they will vote “no” in the upcoming referendum on the Indigenous Voice to Parliament, according to a...

19.09.2023 10

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Adrian Beaumont

NZ election 2023: with a month to go, polls point to a right-wing coalition government

The New Zealand general election to be held in one month, on October 14, will be the country’s tenth under the mixed member proportional system...

14.09.2023 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Voice support and Albanese’s ratings continue to tumble in Resolve and other polls

The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14. A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted September...

11.09.2023 9

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

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