Whenever the next federal election rolls around, it is looking to be a tough one for Liberal candidates.
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I feel secure saying the party overall will elect more MPs than will Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada, but that is the only given.
There are likely to be people who have given up on the Liberals but will never vote Conservative, so the Liberals beating the Green Party is a strong bet, but not a lock.
Want a shocking statistic to back what I am saying?
Abacus Data writes that as of Feb. 25, “it’s been 644 straight days that the Conservatives have led the Liberals in Abacus Data polling.”
Importantly, it isn’t just that the lead for the Conservatives has been long — it is wide as well.
“If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservatives, with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 35% in Quebec,” Abacus reports.
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Similarly, Nanos research shows the Conservatives at 41% and Liberals at 24%.
The Abacus data shows the Conservatives leading in all provinces except Quebec, where the Bloc is in the lead, with the Conservatives in third.
Is Quebec enough?
Seat projections from 338canada.com have the Conservatives winning 210 seats, the Liberals 62 and the NDP 38. The Bloc is predicted, based on polls today, to win 26 seats.
Can it get worse for Trudeau and company?
Yes.
At this point, the Liberals have lost the youth vote and apparently not to other left-leaning parties.
Abacus shows young and first time voters, between 18 and 29, are leaning toward the Conservatives over the NDP by 36% to 22%. The Liberals pull only 21%.
It only gets worse for the Liberals among older voters.
It is true that men are more likely to vote Conservative than are women, but again, Abacus shows women voting 36% Conservative to 26% Liberal.
They say that the voters don’t usually vote parties in, they vote the incumbent out.
That may well be the case in the numbers we see today, rather than all credit going to Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.
Abacus writes, “The mood of the country hasn’t changed since earlier this month and has been fairly consistent since the start of the year. Today, only one in four think Canada is headed in the right direction and only 15% feel optimistic about the direction of the world as a whole. This mood continues to be very sour.”
There just doesn’t seem to be a glimmer of hope for the Liberals, other than the fact the election is not today and not likely to be before early 2025. That is when NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s pensions kicks in and he might abandon his support of the Liberals.
What have the Liberals done to attempt to regain our trust and support?
Doubled down on increasing the carbon tax. Become the subject of damning investigations into their management of COVID, most noticeably how an $80,000-app – the ArriveCAN app – ballooned to at least $60 million.
They also moved to regain our trust by voting not to have an investigation into that issue.
Oh, and mandating that all federally regulated offices must provide tampons in the men’s room.
That will do it.
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