The only safe prediction for 2024 in B.C. politics is that, at some point, you’ll be able to pass judgment on it all in a voting booth.
There will be an election on or before Oct. 19, according to law. The specific date is the best guess at this point, going by Premier David Eby’s most recent musings.
So everything that happens for the next 10 months — planned or unplanned — is prelude to the main event. It will be the first vote of any kind on Eby’s leadership, since he took over by default in November 2022 after the NDP disqualified his only opponent.
All manner of scheming related to the looming showdown is underway in government and in the other three caucuses — BC United, Conservative Party of B.C. and the Greens.
A strong clue about the NDP election platform wafted (literally) out of Energy Minister Josie Osborne’s binder five weeks ago when a memo fell to the floor and into the hands of a passing BC United MLA.
(In the 1920s, U.S. Secretary of State Henry Stimson learned that his department had a secret cryptology spying on other countries. He shut it down in disgust, purportedly saying: “Gentlemen don’t read each other’s mail.” Those days are long gone.)
The Opposition was more than happy to share the pages of the top secret memo with the world. The key part was Osborne’s interpretation of her boss’s priorities: “If Premier Eby is looking for a big and shiny affordability measure for budget…”
Eby acknowledged that is exactly what he is looking for and Osborne isn’t the only cabinet minister charged with finding one.
Giving taxpayers a break is a standard part of every pre-election playbook. The energy ministry’s contribution to the pool of appealing ideas is the concept of heading off any building resentment about the carbon tax by rebating “incremental” costs of the steadily-increasing tax on B.C. Hydro bills.
B.C.’s version of the tax is on an escalator that increases every April 1 and is scheduled to rise 160 per cent by 2030. That translates to gas tax increases of about three-cents-a-litre every year, and corresponding hikes on most other fuels. Various tax credits offset some of that cost, but the carbon tax is has become steadily more contentious. It will become even more so through the upcoming provincial and federal elections.
A similar federal attempt to dampen down carbon tax unrest prompted widespread consternation because it disadvantaged some regions, including B.C.
So a “shiny” new rebate on B.C. Hydro bills is on the table, although it may only cover the “incremental” upcoming hike. not the substantial amount built into the tax over the last 15 years.
In a year-end interview with the Times Colonist, Eby confirmed all ministers have been asked for similar ideas. If he gets five or 10 back, it will be a matter of deciding which ones are the most appealing, within the fiscal constraints.
Those constraints are relatively loose, since balanced budgets are not a top NDP priority. They expect to routinely run with deficits for the next several years.
Eby’s two big priorities are to appear as benign as possible to voters for the next 10 months, and to show some progress on intractable social problems.
The latter job obliquely responds to BC United’s main line of attack on the NDP — that they are good at devising major announcements of big new plans, but fall short on executing them.
There is scant bottom-line progress on alleviating the major crises of housing, health care, overdose deaths and affordability, despite all manner of dramatic pronouncements.
The provincial budget coming Feb. 22 will set the table with another round of plans and announcements.
But Eby said he wants “markers” to start showing up as well — concrete, visible examples of progress in neighbourhoods. He listed ground breakings for new hospitals and the like, more availability of medical care, noticeable improvements in downtown cores and more availability of treatment for substance abuse.
“Seeing traction is really important. … Where we’ll lose people is if we say, ‘This is the best it’s going to get,’ or ‘You need to accept more of the same.’ ”
The wholesale redesign of B.C.’s urban housing landscape, an attempt to shoehorn tens of thousands of new homes into communities, will start rolling out in the spring.
Meanwhile, Opposition parties are bracing for a spring election, just to be safe. BC United’s future depends on making people familiar with its eight-month-old identity as the rebranded BC Liberal Party.
It has been lagging badly so far. But judging by the federal Liberals’ current standing in polls, it could have been even worse if they carried on with the same name.
The two-member Green caucus held its own over the past term. There’s not a lot of obvious growth potential, but maintaining the two Vancouver Island seats would still count as a win.
The wild card for the next year will be the two-member Conservative Party of B.C. caucus. Leader John Rustad and Bruce Banman set a pugnacious tone in the fall sitting with hard-edged, anti-woke positions on social issues. They were immediately rewarded with strong poll showings.
They may be just drafting behind federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s recent surge. Or they may have struck a real chord as a new alternative in B.C.
The answer has big implications not only for the NDP, but for BC United.
lleyne@timescolonist.com
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