At the heart of the Albanese government’s navy overhaul is a fundamental risk assessment: Australia does not face the prospect of a major conflict in the Indo-Pacific by the end of the decade. Or if such a conflict does erupt, it will be fine for the Australian navy to sit on the sidelines.

That’s because despite headline-grabbing promises to double the navy’s fleet of warships, the fine print of the announcement is less attractive. In the short term, the navy’s already meagre surface fleet is shrinking.

A previous plan to extend the life of the current fleet of eight Anzac-class frigates is being scrapped to save money. The oldest of these warships, HMAS Anzac, will never sail again and will soon be harvested for spare parts. Another frigate, HMAS Arunta, is due to go out of service in 2026. That’s two warships down before any new vessels are scheduled to arrive.

Defence Minister Richard Marles says this is the biggest naval overhaul since World War II.Credit: Nick Moir

This is a big gamble given the government has repeatedly said that the nation faces its most dangerous strategic circumstances since World War II. Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the People’s Liberation Army to be capable of capturing the self-governing island of Taiwan by 2027, a move that would probably draw China into a war with Australia’s most important ally: the United States.

Fewer Anzac-class frigates mean Australia will be less able to participate in freedom-of-navigation and other training exercises in the region in coming years despite China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea.

If things turn ugly in the mid-2040s, though, the government promises that the navy will have a fleet brimming with missile-laden ships equipped to defend the continent and promote stability in the region.

By that time, according to the government, the navy will have added three new types of warships to its arsenal: six Hunter-class frigates, up to 11 next-generation frigates and six “optionally crewed” vessels.

One doesn’t have to be a cynic to wonder whether such grand dreams will ever become a reality. Major defence projects have had a long tendency to run over budget, behind schedule and be overtaken by technological developments and changed strategic circumstances.