As the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, the fall of the key eastern city of Avdiivka is one more sign that Vladimir Putin holds the initiative. Ukrainian troops resisted the Russian forces for months, but the threat of encirclement forced Ukraine’s new army chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, to retreat. The Russians were firing 10,000 artillery shells a day; the Ukrainians had been able to reply with about 1,500. Such an imbalance made defeat inevitable.

There are risks in reading too much into a single military setback, especially in light of Russia’s extraordinary losses (more than 300,000 dead and wounded, elite special forces decimated, more than 2,000 tanks destroyed and 24 Russian warships sunk). But Putin is waging total warfare, using nuclear blackmail, terror and a vast increase in defence spending this year by turning Russia into a war economy. His military now absorbs 40 per cent of Russian GDP.

Time and again, weapons which appeared off limits were later judged safe to deploy, six months too late

The fall of Avdiivka came with a fresh Russian nuclear threat. Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and one of Putin’s closest allies, warned that Ukraine regaining its 1991 borders would mean the ‘collapse’ of present Russia, whose constitution was recently amended to include captured territories. The Kremlin won’t let that happen, he said. A Ukrainian victory would trigger ‘a global war with western countries using the entire strategic arsenal of our state: on Kyiv, Berlin, London, Washington. All beautiful historical places, long ago included in the flight targets of our nuclear triad.’

Volodymyr Zelensky was abroad at the time, asking for more munitions to keep up the fight. Given the persistent failure of America and Europe to live up to their promises to Ukraine – the latest being desperately needed ammunition supplies – Zelensky wouldn’t be human if he didn’t fear a sell-out.

QOSHE - Ukraine is in dire need – and the West must respond quickly - Lionel Barber
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Ukraine is in dire need – and the West must respond quickly

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22.02.2024

As the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, the fall of the key eastern city of Avdiivka is one more sign that Vladimir Putin holds the initiative. Ukrainian troops resisted the Russian forces for months, but the threat of encirclement forced Ukraine’s new army chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, to retreat. The Russians were firing 10,000 artillery shells a day; the Ukrainians had been able to reply with about 1,500. Such an imbalance made defeat........

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