When Israel assassinated a top commander in Iran’s Quds Force in Damascus a fortnight ago, it knew that Tehran would have to respond with a direct attack. So news this evening – that Iran has sent a swarm of kamikaze drones that will take nine hours to reach Israel – is in line with those expectations. Israel had already called up reserve units for its air defence: tonight’s dispatch of about 50 Shahed drones (used regularly in Ukraine) was the minimum of what was expected.

Israel says it will try to take them out as they fly over Iraq (they have already been filmed en route). The question is whether Iran will later reinforce with missiles. A cruise missile will take two hours and a ballistic one about 12 minutes according to Israel’s N12 news. ‘The IDF is implementing the orderly plan for which we were prepared. We prepared for several scenarios in advance’ it has said. ‘The public must obey the instructions, act responsibly and calmly.’

Amos Gilead, a retired Israeli general, argues that the Iranians were always going to ‘attack targets that would enable them to declare that they’ve achieved a great victory.’ The expectation of Israel and the US always was that Iran would strike multiple targets within the next few days.

Jordan closed its airspace earlier today and Iran has now done so for ten days. This could all be expected military choreography, aimed to save face without wider escalation. It’s unclear if anyone in Washington, Tel Aviv or Iran is seeking wider conflict. For its part, Iran will know that America stands squarely behind Israel. But with no diplomatic links between Israel and Iran, it’s also very easy for things to spiral. We’ll bring you the latest as it unfolds.

QOSHE - Iran has struck back – but is it war? - Fraser Nelson
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Iran has struck back – but is it war?

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14.04.2024

When Israel assassinated a top commander in Iran’s Quds Force in Damascus a fortnight ago, it knew that Tehran would have to respond with a direct attack. So news this evening – that Iran has sent a swarm of kamikaze drones that will take nine hours to reach Israel – is in line with those expectations. Israel had already called up reserve units for its air defence: tonight’s dispatch of about 50 Shahed drones (used regularly in........

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