As elections inch closer, these tend to be anxious moments for the economy. By all accounts the current interim set-up seems to be doing a decent job in managing the economic affairs of the country. Not only have they somewhat succeeded in putting the fiscal side in a straight jacket where decision making correlates to financial realities lending confidence to international donors, but also at the time it seems fully cognizant on the requirements to address the deep-rooted cum recurring economic malaise by moving towards taking some difficult decisions on privatising bleeding state owned enterprises, resorting to prudent pricing on imported fuels and aiming to eradicate rent-seeking from business operations while searching for a sustainable growth formula that banks on fair market practices and ridding the industry from the burden of imposed burden in shouldering inefficiencies of energy providers and power thieves. If indeed the 9 cents per unit announcement on the industrial power tariff becomes a reality, it will ultimately lead to providing the long sought competitive platform to manufacturing per se. resulting in real growth in exports and arresting de-industrialisation, in-turn creating jobs and ensuring equitable growth. The dilemma though is that when one would have thought that in a scenario where the country literally avoided default - rising from the ashes so to speak - every stakeholder, especially the leading political parties, would have open-heartedly adopted the present approach as an unsaid principle on a charter-of-economy in order to ensure continuity, ironically the reverse seems to be the case. In the election rallies there is no evidence of any type of appreciation for the way the caretakers have managed the economy thus far, in fact the opposite seems to be the case. Absent is the desire in any meaningful way to carry on the current economic direction in their public postures or in their publicly shared manifestos and even more alarmingly the common sloganeering rhetoric tends to dangerously bely any economic prudence that the country desperately needs today - promises and public announcements tend to be purely populist in nature, disregard fiscal realities and border on foolishness cum brinkmanship. Surely, this would be making both, the sensible economic analysts and the donor institutions equally nervous on what if they renege on all the difficult work done so far!
Biden: 'I don't think we need a wider war in the Middle East' The trouble is that Pakistan’s challenges are far from over. The primary objective still remains to secure Pakistan’s solvency and buy time for some fundamental reforms. The country’s external debt servicing obligation remains high with repayment obligations during FY 24-26 totalling around $75 billion. Despite the on-going import compression measures and efforts to enter another IMF program, these alone may not be enough to meet debt obligations unless they are systematically re-structured in order to provide the needed fiscal space for undertaking some fundamental reforms, which essentially are to: a) broaden the tax base; b) re-negotiate the present national finance award; c) resolve the underlying causes of energy circular debt; d) credibly reduce government expenditures; and e) curtail SOE losses and expediting privatisation where necessary. But beyond such a metrics, some new global challenges are emerging that need to be first properly understood and then a strategy to be developed to timely tackle them before they become too large to handle. The fall-outs from the Ukraine and Gaza wars aside, though needless to say that they are once again creating more un-forecasted cum serious supply-chain issues, looking ahead, Pakistan in addition faces a serious climate change challenge and a competitive threat from fast developing AI (Artificial Intelligence) technologies, both by its competitors and its end customers. Similarly, given the levels of stubborn inflation that the country has been seeing for more than two years now and which if not tackled on war-footing, is likely to result in further undermining its competitiveness by rising wages and the enforcement of cost-increasing labour standards cum regulations; whereas for the latter challenge the danger is that all these measures may not only prove counterproductive and may happen at a time or environment where AI replacement of the labour may have assumed a critical tipping point. From the recent election addresses,
CDA starts cleanliness drive from Aabpara Market it seems that none of the political parties is even thinking about these, let alone having a plan to counter them. Post elections, one can only hope that any time before a new government is formed, it displays the maturity and the wisdom to take everyone along to form a collective agreement on economic direction and policymaking that then manifests itself in an effective strategy, which can sustainably provide the much desired growth and development by tangibly improving the standard of living of Pakistanis across the borad.
Dr Kamal Monnoo
The writer is an entrepreneur and economic analyst. Email: kamal.monnoo@gmail.com
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